Chris Buckley and Amy Chang Chien
Reporting from Taipei, Taiwan
Taiwan’s president set off on a mission on Saturday to shore up relations with some of his island democracy’s shrinking band of diplomatic allies: three tiny Pacific Island nations that have taken an outsize importance in Taiwan’s struggle against Chinese efforts to push it off the international stage.
Lai Ching-te, the Taiwanese president, is scheduled to visit the Marshall Islands, Tuvalu and Palau, which amount to one-quarter of the dozen states that maintain diplomatic ties with Taiwan. Since the 1970s, dozens of countries have shifted ties to China. Beijing claims the self-governed island of Taiwan as its territory, and insists that governments end diplomatic relations with Taipei if they want full relations with China.
Mr. Lai’s weeklong trip comes as his government tries to fathom what changes President-elect Donald J. Trump will bring to U.S. dealings with Taiwan, and with China. Mr. Trump has called for Taiwan to sharply increase its military spending and has complained about Taiwan’s global dominance in making semiconductors. But Mr. Trump’s proposed cabinet includes Republicans who have been deeply distrustful of China and sympathetic to Taiwan.
In uncertain times, experts say, Taiwan needs every edge of international advantage that it can get, including from its small allies in the Pacific. Their total population is about 67,000, according to United Nations estimates, compared with Taiwan’s more than 23 million people. But they are members of the United Nations and its bodies, while Taiwan is generally excluded.
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“The advantage that Taiwan gets from showing good will to these diplomatic partners is that naturally they help us speak out internationally, in all kinds of international settings where Taiwan can’t do it,” said Ian Tsung-yen Chen, a professor who specializes in Asia-Pacific relations at National Sun Yat-sen University in Kaohsiung, southern Taiwan.
In addition to visiting the Pacific Island countries, Mr. Lai will spend two nights in Hawaii and stop for a day on Guam, an American island territory in the Pacific, Taiwanese officials have said. His trip has already drawn condemnation from Beijing. In the coming days, China may, if precedent is a guide, display its anger over Mr. Lai’s trip by piling invective on him, and Taiwanese security officials have said they expect Beijing to also stage increased military activities around the island, including coast guard maneuvers.
China says that Taiwanese leaders’ stopovers on American soil violate Washington diplomatic understandings with Beijing; U.S. officials say the transit visits are a courtesy for Taiwan’s leaders. Taiwanese leaders have used their brief stops to promote stronger ties with the United States, which, even without full diplomatic relations, remains their most important partner — a vital market for Taiwan’s goods and a supplier of most of its military weapons.
This time, Mr. Lai will not set foot in the continental United States, reducing opportunities for high-profile meetings. Beijing’s reaction may also be relatively muted as Chinese leaders focus on preparing for the second Trump administration. More attention may fall on Mr. Lai’s efforts to preserve Taiwan’s diplomatic footprint, especially in the Pacific.
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